FXUS64 KOHX 020020 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 620 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 617 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026 - Look for medium to high rain chances this afternoon and into the evening. - Monday and Tuesday look to be rain-free, then another soaking rainfall will arrive during the middle of the week. - Warmest temperatures will occur on Tuesday, with a gradual cooling trend afterwards. && .UPDATE... Issued at 617 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026 Showers continue to blanket Middle TN associated with a shortwave trough. First glance at this evening's 00Z soundings depict a very saturated profile in the low levels. With all this moisture present, expect light drizzle on and off through about midnight. Once this activity clears out tonight, a cool overcast night is in store before we move into a benign transitional period on Monday. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Monday) Issued at 1131 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026 A broad area of light to moderate rainfall continues to impact the mid state as a shortwave makes its way across the region. MRMS rainfall estimates show that a significant portion of southwest Middle Tennessee has received 1 to 3 inches of rainfall already, with lesser amounts occurring elsewhere. The heaviest precipitation will exit the mid state by nightfall, but rain chances will still linger into the evening, mainly north of I-40. High pressure will follow behind the departing shortwave tomorrow, with a couple of rain-free days to start the new week. && .LONG TERM... (Monday Night through next Sunday) Issued at 1131 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026 A strong cold front and upper trough will begin to impact Middle Tennessee Tuesday night and especially Wednesday as another soaking rain spreads across the region. Temperatures will peak in the mid and upper 70s most areas on Tuesday, then look for readings to gradually taper off to (or slightly below) seasonal norms by the end of the week. No hazardous weather is expected anytime soon. Hopefully the much-needed rainfall this week can at a minimum put the brakes on any further worsening of the drought. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 617 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026 Aviation cats have been decent today, but I do expect MVFR cigs to move into CKV/BNA/MQY by 03-04Z and stick around until after daybreak when VFR should return. CSV/SRB remain VFR. Winds will be light southeasterly and light overnight, shifting to the south and becoming a little breezy Monday afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 52 73 58 77 / 30 10 0 0 Clarksville 52 73 59 78 / 30 10 0 10 Crossville 47 68 51 73 / 50 10 0 0 Columbia 52 73 58 77 / 20 10 0 0 Cookeville 52 71 57 75 / 50 10 0 0 Jamestown 50 70 54 75 / 50 10 0 0 Lawrenceburg 51 72 57 76 / 20 10 0 0 Murfreesboro 52 74 58 79 / 30 10 0 0 Waverly 53 72 61 76 / 20 10 0 10 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE.......Dirkes SHORT TERM...Rose LONG TERM....Rose AVIATION.....Unger