FXUS64 KSHV 011746 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1146 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1144 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026 - Warmer, more humid and mostly dry conditions will prevail through tomorrow, from lows in the 50s and 60s to highs in the lower 80s. - A cold front will bring showers and storms from the northwest before dawn Tuesday, spreading south through the day. Damaging wind gusts and flash flooding will be possible. - Behind the front, more seasonable temperatures will prevail through the remainder of the week and into next weekend, with highs in the 70s and lows in the 40s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1144 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026 Upper level ridging is building over the Four State Region from west to east, helping to put the sun in this Sunday. As skies continue to clear, temperatures will soar back into the lower 80s this afternoon. A lingering moisture axis continues to fire up some remnant showers across central to northeast Louisiana, with guidance suggesting this band may struggle to fully depart through the day today. Elsewhere, dry and partly cloudy conditions will prevail. With low to mid level moisture returns, clouds will fill in overnight while temperatures drop into the middle to upper 50s north and lower 60s south. Today's ridge axis will be swept cleanly out of the region tomorrow by the approach of the advertised deepening longwave trough amplifying southwards over the Rockies and ejecting east over the Front Range into the Plains by tomorrow evening. Southwest flow aloft and southerly surface flow will keep temperatures warm despite mostly cloudy skies, with another afternoon of upper 70s to lower 80s areawide. As with today, a few spotty showers across our southeasternmost zones cannot be ruled out, with increasingly humid but dry conditions elsewhere. The timing of Monday into Tuesday's showers and storms follows the slower progression hinted at in recent days, with the earliest lower chances of rain arriving Monday evening in our far northwest. PoPs indicate high confidence in the main line pushing into the ArkLaTex from the northwest between midnight and daybreak Tuesday, spreading through the middle of the region after dawn and our southeastern zones into the afternoon and early evening, with rainfall looking to come to an end overnight into Wednesday morning. With Tuesday's showers and storms, a Marginal Risk (Level 1/5) will be present, with the primary threat being in the form of damaging wind gusts. Additionally, periods of heavy rainfall leading to areas of flash flooding will be possible, impacting urban areas, small streams and areas of poor drainage. Behind the cold front responsible for Tuesday's storms, drier and noticeably cooler conditions will prevail for the remainder of the week, as highs climb only into the 70s, while lows fall into the 40s. A weaker secondary trough passing just to our north Thursday is looking like less of a rainmaker in recent guidance, but will help to reinforce our more seasonable or slightly below- average temperatures through to the end of this extended forecast period. /26/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1144 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026 Conditions are continuing to improve across the region at the time of writing. Terminals should be returning to VFR within the next few hours with some scattered 4k clouds lingering. Winds should stay light and northeasterly this afternoon and through the overnight hours as low cigs move back in from the east early tomorrow morning. Terminals may tank very quickly and be slow to recover through the late morning, as they have been for the last several mornings. Winds are expected to shift south/southeasterly in the latter half of the period and strengthen over the last few hours to around 10 kts. /57/ && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 116 AM CDT Sun Nov 1 2026 Spotter activation is not expected through tonight. /15/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 65 83 67 76 / 10 10 30 100 MLU 64 83 66 82 / 10 10 10 90 DEQ 62 82 64 75 / 10 10 90 80 TXK 62 82 65 74 / 10 10 60 90 ELD 62 81 65 77 / 10 10 30 90 TYR 65 85 67 75 / 10 10 70 80 GGG 63 84 67 76 / 10 10 50 90 LFK 64 84 67 79 / 10 10 20 100 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...26 AVIATION...57