FXUS65 KABQ 011816 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1116 AM MST Sun Nov 1 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1105 AM MST Sun Nov 1 2026 - Heavier rainfall will return today through Monday morning across western New Mexico. Given saturated soils, there is a chance for localized flooding from persistent rainfall. River rises are expected across northern and western New Mexico, and there is a moderate to high chance for river flooding. - Severe thunderstorms will develop across central and eastern New Mexico this afternoon and tonight, bringing a threat for hail, damaging winds and tornadoes. - A few inches of snow will fall over the northern mountains above 9000 feet Monday morning. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 102 AM MST Sun Nov 1 2026 Patchy fog and low clouds will continue to expand overnight across east central and southeast NM, with a lower chance of fog developing across portions of north central NM by sunrise. Meanwhile, light showers are ongoing across portions of western and central NM, with a larger area of rain over AZ. This area of rain will continue to shift into NM overnight and through the day. As winds strengthen ahead of the approaching Pacific trough this morning, precipitation will focus over favored southwest flow upslope regions of the western and northwest mountains with lighter or minimal rainfall elsewhere. This will change this afternoon. A Pacific cold front will race from west to east this afternoon, entering western NM around 1-2pm. A band of heavier showers and isolated thunderstorms will be found along the front, so precipitation will fill in at lower elevations. A few storms will be capable of damaging wind gusts across west central NM during the afternoon and early evening. However, the threat for severe weather is greatest from the Rio Grande Valley eastward. The front and the associated band of precipitation will approach the Rio Grande Valley around 4-5pm where more instability will exist and 0-6km bulk shear near 50kt will be found. Thunderstorm coverage will increase and the potential for severe weather will also increase. As the line/broken line of storms shifts over eastern NM, 0-6km bulk shear up to 70kt, 0-3km helicity near 300m^2/s^2, and MLCAPE near 1500 J/kg will be available for severe thunderstorms. Storms will be capable of all hazards, but damaging wind gusts with any bowing segment and QLCS-type tornadoes or tornadoes from supercells embedded in the line are the main concerns. Damaging wind gusts could exceed 70 mph from bowing segments. Folks across central and eastern NM should have more than one way to receive a warning today/tonight. While the front slides eastward and the potential for severe weather draws attention this evening and overnight, orographic lift will continue to bring rain to favored upslope regions across western NM, so the flooding threat will persist, though the lower elevation rain will have diminished considerably. The northern stream low is progged to move over the Four Corners early Monday morning. A stronger cold front will push into northwest NM and will reach the Central Mountain Chain around or shortly after sunrise Monday. Once again, a band of heavier precipitation (not as heavy as the first) will accompany the front, though severe weather is not expected. Rather, much cooler temperatures will allow snow levels to fall. The initial cold front this aftn/eve will drop snow levels down from 13kft+ to 10-11kft, then this secondary stronger front will drop snow levels down to 7500-9000ft. This will bring a few to several inches of snow to the northern mountains, with most of the accumulations above 9000 feet. 1 to 4 inches will be common, but a few areas could see around 6 inches. Most of the precipitation will diminish as it shifts east of the Central Mountain Chain Monday morning. However, a backdoor cold front will shift into NM during the afternoon hours Monday, and additional light precipitation will develop over NE NM. Most precipitation should be rain, but a light rain/snow mix is possible over Raton Pass. Precipitation should end Monday evening. Aside from the rain, snow and severe weather, there is also concern for gusty winds both today and Monday. H7 winds ahead of the Pacific trough with be on the order of 40-60kt and while this momentum should not make it to the surface across western NM except in cases of thunderstorms, there is better mixing across portions of northeast NM. Areas along the Raton Ridge could see gusts upwards of 55 mph this afternoon and continuing through the overnight hours. Gusts near 50 mph cannot be ruled out around KLVS as well, but less confidence exists that these gusts will happen outside of thunderstorms. For now, will issue a Wind Advisory for Johnson and Bartlett Mesas including Raton Pass, and the day shift will monitor for any expansions. Winds will also increase this evening and overnight behind the initial front, but should stay sub-advisory criteria for the most part. Winds will increase further on Monday behind the secondary cold front, particularly along and east of the Central Mtn Chain from KLVS southward. Expecting gusts near 50 mph. Confidence is high that Wind Advisories will be issued for this area in later forecast packages. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 102 AM MST Sun Nov 1 2026 It seems like winds may stay a little too high Monday night for another round of fog and low clouds to form, but will have to watch for this anywhere winds fully diminish. Temperatures will be chilly Monday night, though not the coldest we've seen this season. Shortwave ridging remains on tap for Tuesday into Wednesday with much quieter weather forecast. An upper level low looks to pass just to the north of NM Wed aftn through Thur morning. This system may bring light showers to northern NM, but no impacts are expected. Another backdoor cold front will slide down the plains Thursday bringing a few light breezes to the area, otherwise quiet conditions will prevail. Models continue to indicate a trough will cross NM around the Friday/Saturday timeframe, but most models suggest this will be mainly a dry passage. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1105 AM MST Sun Nov 1 2026 Weather conditions will continue to deteriorate across northern and central New Mexico through Monday as a subtropical weather disturbance crosses the state, followed by a strong low pressure system. MVFR to IFR ceilings will persist through mid afternoon, especially over eastern New Mexico before lifting and eroding some. In western areas, more widespread persistent rain and periods of thunderstorms will move in through the mid afternoon. By the mid to late afternoon, a broken north-south oriented line of strong to severe thunderstorms is then forecast to move out of western New Mexico and into central areas, gradually moving into eastern areas of the state by this evening and overnight. Rain and thunderstorms will reduce ceilings and visibility with storms turning strong to severe with damaging downburst wind gusts and even a low risk of tornadoes through the late evening. After the line of storms moves through, new batches of lighter rain and high elevation snow will break out over northwestern to north central areas of New Mexico early Monday morning. These will gradually dwindle through mid day Monday. Gusty winds will be common from the south today, turning southwest and westerly tonight into Monday. An Airport Weather Warning is in effect for KABQ where gusts will breach 35 knots through 7 PM MST this evening. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 102 AM MST Sun Nov 1 2026 Critical fire weather conditions are not expected for the next 7 days. Widespread precipitation is on tap today through Monday morning with rain and thunderstorms today and tonight, and snow across the northern mountains and rain at lower elevations Monday morning. Strong southwest winds will develop areawide today with gusts between 35 and 55 mph common outside of thunderstorms. Thunderstorms may bring stronger wind gusts as well as a risk for hail and tornadoes through tonight, especially from the Rio Grande Valley eastward to the Texas border. On Monday, west to northwest winds will increase, with gusts near 50 mph along and east of the Central Mountain Chain from KLVS southward. Elsewhere gusts up to 40 mph will be common. Quieter conditions expected starting Tuesday, but poor ventilation will be common. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 62 42 55 35 / 90 80 30 0 Dulce........................... 56 36 49 27 / 100 90 60 0 Cuba............................ 57 37 48 31 / 90 90 40 5 Gallup.......................... 58 37 53 29 / 90 90 10 0 El Morro........................ 58 37 50 27 / 90 90 20 0 Grants.......................... 62 39 53 31 / 90 90 20 0 Quemado......................... 60 38 53 30 / 90 80 40 0 Magdalena....................... 64 44 57 35 / 70 70 50 0 Datil........................... 60 41 52 31 / 80 80 50 0 Reserve......................... 60 42 60 30 / 90 80 30 0 Glenwood........................ 64 46 62 35 / 90 80 40 0 Chama........................... 52 33 42 25 / 100 90 70 10 Los Alamos...................... 57 41 50 34 / 90 90 30 5 Pecos........................... 59 37 49 31 / 90 90 60 10 Cerro/Questa.................... 55 37 47 30 / 100 90 60 10 Red River....................... 53 35 41 26 / 90 90 80 20 Angel Fire...................... 56 34 43 23 / 70 90 80 20 Taos............................ 59 37 49 27 / 90 90 60 10 Mora............................ 58 37 48 28 / 80 90 40 20 Espanola........................ 64 41 56 32 / 90 90 40 10 Santa Fe........................ 60 43 50 34 / 90 90 60 10 Santa Fe Airport................ 63 41 54 32 / 80 90 50 10 Albuquerque Foothills........... 67 44 56 38 / 70 90 60 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 68 45 58 39 / 60 90 60 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 69 40 61 31 / 60 90 50 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 68 47 59 39 / 70 90 40 0 Belen........................... 71 48 63 38 / 50 80 60 0 Bernalillo...................... 68 45 58 36 / 80 90 50 0 Bosque Farms.................... 70 43 62 34 / 60 80 60 0 Corrales........................ 68 45 58 36 / 80 90 50 0 Los Lunas....................... 70 46 62 37 / 60 80 50 0 Placitas........................ 66 43 55 37 / 80 90 60 0 Rio Rancho...................... 67 46 57 38 / 80 90 40 0 Socorro......................... 72 50 66 42 / 50 80 50 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 62 41 51 32 / 70 90 70 0 Tijeras......................... 64 43 53 35 / 60 90 70 0 Edgewood........................ 65 42 52 32 / 50 90 70 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 67 42 55 31 / 50 90 60 0 Clines Corners.................. 63 41 51 33 / 30 90 50 0 Mountainair..................... 64 42 55 33 / 40 90 80 0 Gran Quivira.................... 64 43 56 34 / 40 90 70 0 Carrizozo....................... 70 50 61 40 / 30 90 50 0 Ruidoso......................... 66 45 55 36 / 20 9040 0 Capulin......................... 60 43 55 32 / 20 90 40 30 Raton........................... 65 42 59 33 / 30 90 30 30 Springer........................ 67 45 60 33 / 20 80 20 10 Las Vegas....................... 62 42 53 32 / 70 90 20 10 Clayton......................... 65 50 63 41 / 10 80 30 20 Roy............................. 62 46 59 36 / 30 80 10 10 Conchas......................... 70 53 66 42 / 20 80 5 10 Santa Rosa...................... 69 51 62 41 / 20 80 10 0 Tucumcari....................... 72 55 68 42 / 10 80 5 10 Clovis.......................... 71 55 67 44 / 5 60 10 0 Portales........................ 72 56 69 43 / 5 60 5 0 Fort Sumner..................... 70 53 67 43 / 10 80 10 0 Roswell......................... 74 57 73 47 / 10 40 0 0 Picacho......................... 74 53 66 42 / 0 50 5 0 Elk............................. 71 50 63 40 / 10 60 5 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through Monday morning for NMZ201>211. Wind Advisory until 5 AM MST Monday for NMZ227. && $$ SHORT TERM...34 LONG TERM....34 AVIATION...52