FXUS65 KTWC 012109 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 209 PM MST Sun Nov 1 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Widespread rain this afternoon and evening with a few embedded thunderstorms as a weather system moves through. Some lingering shower activity will persist into Monday morning, then drier air moves in for the remainder of the work week. A Flood Watch is in effect for all of southeast Arizona through 5 AM Monday. && .DISCUSSION... The atmospheric river (AR) event continues this afternoon across southeast Arizona, aided by a strong subtropical jet just ahead of a strong upper level trough. Rainfall amounts over the past 6 hours have ranged from 0.5 to 1.0+ with highest amounts of 2.0+ in Oro Valley and in the Catalinas. So far the impacts reported have been multiple swift water rescues across the area and rises in creeks, rivers, and washes. As of 2 PM MST, Sabino Creek has risen to Minor Flood Stage and the latest forecast for the Gila River near Solomon to rise beginning tonight and cresting tomorrow morning; These will be features to keep an eye on this evening and overnight. Continue to heed any road closures and never drive in flooded roadways. The heaviest band of precipitation is currently to the east of the Tucson metro, orientating SW to NE from Sierra Vista to Clifton. The CAMs continue to be in agreement with this band continuing to move eastward through the area into New Mexico at 8/9 PM. The Tucson Metro will begin to dry out at 5/6 PM, with lingering isolated showers through 5 AM. There were some embedded thunderstorms today, with a handful of lightning strikes with the heaviest initial band. Thus far, there has been limited instability was a significant mitigating factor in any significant thunderstorm development. The greatest chances for thunderstorms will be where there is significant cloud breaks that heat the surface and create instability. Outside of thunderstorm activity, breezy southwest winds are expected through the afternoon and early evening then switches to the northeast as the low pressure system swings through. Lingering showers will diminish Monday morning with no significant rainfall expected. Thereafter, dry conditions as shortwave ridging builds in. This shortwave ridging will traverse across the regions Tuesday with dry conditions still continuing beyond Wednesday and Thursday as westerly flow prevails. Some semblance of troughing around Friday but still some differences in the ensembles and moisture is lacking so will keep PoPs below mentionable levels into next weekend. Temperatures will be 4 to 7 degrees below normal for most of this week. && .AVIATION... Valid through 03/00Z. Expect periods of MVFR cigs at all terminals through 02/02Z with brief IFR cigs possible especially at KDUG and KOLS. Numerous SHRA with slight chc -TSRA mainly from KTUS/KOLS westward through about 01/21Z, then that shifts eastward thereafter before exiting eastern areas around 02/03Z. Additional SCT -SHRA possible mainly north and west of KTUS tonight through 02/12Z. Vis down to 1-2 miles will be possible in SHRA or TSRA today. SFC winds SWLY 12-20 kts and gusts 25- 30 kts, then gradually diminishing aft 02/06Z. Near stronger TSRA wind gusts of 30-40 kts will be possible. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER... Widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms today into tonight, with some areas of heavy rain. The heaviest rain will be over the higher terrain. Some lingering shower activity will persist into Monday morning with dry conditions thereafter. Afternoon high temperatures will lower below normal through the forecast period. Breezy to locally windy southwest winds expected today, turning northwest Monday. Minimum RH levels values into early next week will be 40+ percent. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through late tonight for AZZ501>515. && $$ JT Visit us on Facebook, X, YouTube, and at weather.gov/Tucson